It feels great to take a scary housing headline and replace it with real data that makes buyers and homeowners visibly relax. Sometimes you can almost see the stress leave the room.

This time of year, when people are reflecting on the past year and planning for the next one, housing questions come up a lot. Conversations shift quickly from resolutions and goals to whether now is a good time to buy, sell, or sit tight.

Over the past few weeks, I have been answering the same questions again and again using actual market data. It hit me that this information would be helpful to share more broadly.

So here is a clear, data-driven fourth quarter housing market Q and A, focused on what is really happening nationally and what it means for homeowners and buyers in Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, and surrounding North Carolina markets.

How is the housing market right now?

Let’s start with the national picture.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, existing home sales rose 1.2 percent in October to an annual pace of 4.10 million homes. Sales are also 1.7 percent higher than one year ago, showing modest but real improvement.

The median home price increased to $415,200, which represents a 2.1 percent gain year over year.

Inventory remains tight across the country, with 4.4 months of supply. That level of inventory continues to support home values, even when buyer demand cools.

What does this mean locally?

In markets like Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, and Wake Forest, we are seeing a similar pattern.

• Prices have stabilized after rapid appreciation
• Well priced homes continue to sell
• Buyers are more selective, not absent
• Homes that sit typically need pricing or presentation adjustments

The market is slower than the frenzy years, but it is far from frozen.

Are home values really dropping and should homeowners be worried?

This question picked up steam after a widely shared Zillow statistic reported that 53 percent of homes nationwide have dipped in value over the past year. That headline sounds alarming until you look at the full context.

Here is what the deeper data shows:

• Home values surged for six straight years
• A modest pullback is normal after rapid growth
• The average dip from peak value is about 9.7 percent
• After the 2008 crash, prices dropped roughly 27 percent
• Only 4.1 percent of homes are worth less than their last purchase price
• That means 95.9 percent of homeowners still have equity
• The typical homeowner has gained 67 percent in value since buying

For homeowners in Durham, Raleigh, Chapel Hill, and nearby towns, small month to month valuation changes do not erase years of equity growth. If you are planning long term, short term price movement is not a threat to your financial foundation.

Are rising foreclosures a sign of another housing crash?

Foreclosure headlines are another area where context matters.

According to ATTOM, there were 36,766 properties with foreclosure filings in October, which is a 3 percent increase from September and a 19 percent increase from last year.

Those numbers sound concerning until you understand what is behind them.

Here is what the headlines often leave out:

• We are rising from historically low foreclosure levels
• Even with recent increases, foreclosure activity remains below normal
• Only 3,872 properties were actually repossessed by lenders in October
• Some regional spikes are tied to reporting delays, not widespread distress

That said, financial pressure is real for many households.

• Insurance premiums have increased
• Property taxes have gone up
• Everyday living costs continue to rise

Those pressures can make the housing market feel unstable even when the data shows otherwise.

The bottom line is simple. This is not 2008. Loan standards today are far stricter, and most homeowners in North Carolina have enough equity to sell long before foreclosure would ever become necessary.

If this ever feels personal or stressful, I help homeowners explore options early so they can make thoughtful decisions instead of reactive ones.

What is the deal with the 50 year mortgage everyone is talking about?

The idea of a 50 year mortgage gained traction because it sounds like an easy affordability fix. Longer loan terms would reduce monthly payments.

Here is the reality:

• A 50 year mortgage is not currently legal under federal guidelines
• The Qualified Mortgage rule caps terms at 30 years
• Changing that would require legislative action
• Longer loans slow equity growth
• Total interest paid would increase dramatically

For now, this is a discussion topic, not a real lending option.

Can homeowners keep their low mortgage rate if they move?

Portable mortgages have been another popular topic, especially for homeowners with rates in the 2 to 3 percent range.

The idea would allow homeowners to transfer their existing loan and rate to a new home.

While the FHFA has said they are studying the concept, no policy changes have been approved. Most existing mortgages specifically prohibit portability, which makes implementation complex.

As of today, lenders cannot move your current mortgage to a new property. If that ever changes, I will be the first to share the update.

What should we expect going into 2026?

According to the latest forecast from the National Association of REALTORS®, the outlook is cautiously optimistic.

• Existing home sales are expected to rise 14 percent
• Home prices are projected to increase 3 percent by the end of 2025
• Prices may rise another 4 percent in 2026
• Mortgage rates are expected to ease from around 6.7 percent to near 6 percent
• Mortgage applications are already up 31 percent year over year

That tells us buyer demand is building beneath the surface.

The takeaway for homeowners and buyers in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill

The housing market is not collapsing. It is recalibrating.

Activity is expected to increase, price growth is becoming healthier and more sustainable, and affordability may slowly improve as rates ease.

If you are thinking about buying, selling, or simply planning ahead in Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, or the surrounding areas, I am always here as a resource.

If there is a question that I did not answer or address in this blog, reach out to me here via email. I am happy to walk through your specific situation and help you make sense of the data before you make your next move.

Thanks for reading!

Brandon