The 2026 housing market is already coming into focus, and buyers and homeowners across Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, and surrounding areas are asking one big question: Will it finally get easier to make a move?

The latest national forecasts from the National Association of REALTORS®, Realtor.com, and Zillow all point in the same direction. Conditions are expected to improve, slowly but meaningfully.

This is not a dramatic reset. It is a shift toward balance.

Here is what the experts are projecting for 2026 and how those trends could impact your plans if you are thinking about buying or selling a home in the year ahead.

Home Sales Activity Is Expected to Improve Gradually

All three major forecasts show an increase in home sales nationwide in 2026 as affordability slowly improves. The pace of that improvement varies by source, but the direction is clear.

National projections include:

• National Association of REALTORS®: approximately 14 percent growth in home sales
• Zillow: a 4.3 percent increase, reaching about 4.26 million total sales, driven by pent-up demand
• Realtor.com: a more modest 1.7 percent increase to roughly 4.13 million existing home sales

Realtor.com’s conservative outlook is tied to one major factor. Nearly four out of five homeowners currently have mortgage rates below 6 percent, which limits how many people are willing to sell.

Locally, in markets like Raleigh, Cary, Apex, and Chapel Hill, one of the clearest signs of shifting demand will be how quickly new listings go under contract. Shortening days on market usually signal improving buyer confidence.

Home Prices Are Still Rising, Just at a Healthier Pace

Home prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, though at a much more measured pace than during the pandemic years. Waiting for a major price drop is unlikely to be a winning strategy.

National forecasts suggest:

• Price growth between 1.2 percent and 4 percent
• More markets maintaining price stability
• Fewer large metro areas experiencing price declines, dropping from 24 markets in 2025 to 12 in 2026, according to Zillow

For homeowners in Durham, Wake Forest, Holly Springs, and Fuquay-Varina, this means equity remains a real advantage. For buyers, slower appreciation can translate into slightly better negotiating conditions.

Mortgage Rates Should Ease but Will Stay Above Historic Lows

All forecasts agree that mortgage rates will remain above 6 percent in 2026, but they are expected to settle below the highs seen earlier in 2025.

Experts project:

• An average mortgage rate around 6.3 percent in 2026
• Gradual improvement in affordability
• No return to 3 percent mortgage rates under normal economic conditions

Unexpected global or economic events could always change the picture, but under current conditions, ultra-low rates are not expected to return.

If you are planning to buy a home in Raleigh, Durham, or Chapel Hill in 2026, connecting with a lender early can help you understand your options and build a realistic budget before competition picks up.

Housing Inventory Is Growing but Still Below Normal

Inventory is finally increasing after years of record lows. That is good news for both buyers and sellers.

National expectations include:

• An 8.9 percent increase in existing home inventory
• Months of supply averaging around 4.6 months, which points toward a more balanced market
• Builders continuing to offer incentives like rate buydowns and closing cost credits to keep new construction moving

In local markets such as Clayton, Garner, Pittsboro, and Apex, more inventory may ease competition slightly. That said, well-priced and well-presented homes will still attract strong interest.

Affordability Is Slowly Shifting in Buyers’ Favor

For the first time in several years, affordability trends are moving in a more buyer-friendly direction. Housing will not suddenly feel inexpensive, but more households may be able to stay in the game.

National indicators show:

• The typical housing payment falling to 29.3 percent of income in 2026
• More first-time buyers able to qualify
• Rent affordability improving, which helps renters save for a down payment

If you are renting in Raleigh, Durham, or Chapel Hill, this could be an ideal time to start planning for ownership, even if your purchase is still a year or two away.

What This Means If You Want to Buy in 2026

Small improvements can add up in meaningful ways. Buyers in the North Carolina market may benefit from:

• Slightly lower borrowing costs
• More homes to choose from
• Less intense competition than the last few years

The most important step is clarity. Knowing your price range, financing options, and timeline early gives you leverage when the right home becomes available.

What This Means If You Want to Sell in 2026

Sellers remain in a strong position, but strategy matters more than it did during the peak frenzy years.

Homeowners in Raleigh, Cary, Chapel Hill, and surrounding towns continue to benefit from:

• Strong resale values
• A growing pool of qualified buyers
• Significant equity gains that can fund the next chapter

As buyers become more payment-sensitive, pricing correctly and presenting the home well will be key to maximizing results.

The Bottom Line

National forecasts suggest that 2026 will bring a more balanced and navigable housing market. For buyers and sellers in Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, and nearby communities, planning ahead will be the difference between reacting and moving with confidence.

If you want to talk through your options and build a smart strategy for 2026, reach out to me here via email. I enjoy these planning conversations and would love to help you get closer to your home goals in the year ahead.

Thanks for reading!

Brandon